Cannacurio #120: Cultivation Licensing Recap Q3 2025

The cannabis supply chain begins in the grow room, and cultivation activity remains one of the most reliable indicators of where markets are heading. Plant count, canopy size, and license velocity all reveal how each state is balancing supply, demand, and regulatory pressures.

In Q3 2025, cultivation licensing continued to cool as states confronted oversupply and reevaluated capacity. A number of major markets slowed or paused issuance, while a handful of emerging markets continued to expand.

Cultivation Key Findings

• 518 cultivation licenses were issued in Q3, down sharply from 729 in Q2.
• ‍California led issuance with 190 licenses (37%),followed by Michigan (146) and Maine (51).
• The U.S. now has 17,652 active cultivation licenses, a decline from 18,164 at the end of Q2.
• License issuance stayed relatively steady across the past 12 months—with the exception of April, when Michigan added 210 new licenses in a single month.

The past year shows moderate, consistent activity with one clear outlier: Michigan’s April surge. Outside of that spike, states appear to be settling into a slower, more cautious licensing rhythm as oversupply weighs on producer economics.

Q3 2025 Cultivation Leaderboard

California continues to anchor the top of the leaderboard, but Michigan’s sustained licensing activity has created a two-state race in overall license issuance. Maine’s presence in the top three underscores the steady output of smaller but active markets.

Across the first nine months of 2025, the top-issuing states reflect a mix of mature markets, states still expanding infrastructure, and newer entrants building out capacity.

Active License Concentration: Key States

The following graph isolates the total active licenses for Oklahoma, Michigan, California and New York. New York is the only market where the count of cultivation licenses is growing. The Empire state is up 20% while Oklahoma is down 20%.

A comparison of total active cultivation licenses in Oklahoma, Michigan,California, and New York shows diverging trajectories:

• ‍New York is the only state among the group where cultivation licenses are increasing, up 20%year-to-date.‍
• Oklahoma continues its sharp contraction, down 20% after years of oversupply and over-licensing.‍
• California and Michigan remain large-volume markets but are no longer expanding meaningfully.
• Month-by-month tables reinforce this split between states tightening supply and those still building.

National View: Total Active Cultivation Licenses

California still holds the nation’s largest number of cultivation licenses. Michigan’s steady growth has allowed it to surpass Oklahoma, reflecting a shuffling of the national hierarchy.

But what unites all three markets — despite their size differences — is oversupply. Each state is grappling with too much canopy and inconsistent demand growth, leading regulators to reassess how much new production the market can sustain.

Conclusion

Q3 reinforced the shift toward tighter supply management across the country. California retains its lead in cultivation licenses, but the story of the quarter is not about which state sits on top—it’s about the growing number of states hitting the brakes.

As wholesale prices remain under pressure, regulators in Montana, Oregon, and Oklahoma have enacted moratoriums on new cultivation licenses. Massachusetts is now evaluating similar steps, either through a formal pause on new cultivation licenses or by reducing allowable canopy.

These moves signal a broader transition into a managed-supply era, where states take a more active role in preventing destabilizing oversupply. Meanwhile, New York’s continued expansion stands out as one of the few bright spots for cultivators, though production increases will eventually test that market’s balance as well.

Heading into Q4, key factors to watch include:

• Whether Michigan’s aggressive license issuance begins to cool
• How quickly New York’s 20% year-to-date growth translates into market activity
• Additional states considering moratoriums or canopy adjustments
• The pace of consolidation and license attrition in oversupplied markets
• How tightly will Minnesota manage their new license rollout?

The cultivation landscape remains dynamic, but the direction is increasingly clear: many states are prioritizing stability over expansion.

Author

Ed Keating is a co-founder of Cannabiz Media and oversees the company’s data research and government relations efforts. He has spent his career working with and advising information companies in the compliance space. Ed has managed product, marketing, and sales while overseeing complex multi jurisdictional product lines in the securities, corporate, UCC, safety, environmental, and human resource markets.  

AtCannabiz Media, Ed enjoys the challenge of working with regulators across the globe as he and his team gather corporate, financial, and license information to track the people, products, and businesses in the cannabis economy.  

Ed graduated from Hamilton College and received his MBA from the Kellogg School at Northwestern University.

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